Near-term outlook


Estimated in January-September 2018 Interim Report

Growth in the demand for high-quality consumer packaging paperboard made from fresh fibre is expected to continue in market areas important for Metsä Board. The market prices of folding boxboard and white kraftliner in local currencies are expected to remain mainly stable or to rise slightly.

Metsä Board’s paperboard deliveries during the fourth quarter are expected to remain roughly on the level of the third quarter or to decline slightly. The delivery volumes of the fourth quarter are affected by the seasonally slower December.

Metsä Board continues its measures to improve the average price of folding boxboard by optimising the mix of sales. Part of the maintenance shutdown of the Husum integrated mill occurred during the fourth quarter. The maintenance shutdown ended at the beginning of October, and its effect on the result has been accounted for in the result guidance for the fourth quarter.

The strengthening of the US dollar and the weakening of the Swedish krona against the euro, accounting for the impact of hedges, will have a positive impact on the operating result during the fourth quarter compared to the previous quarter. 

Wood costs in the fourth quarter are expected to remain roughly at the same level as in the third quarter. Net impact of energy costs and sale of emission rights are expected to improve the operating result.
The total production costs of paperboard in 2018 will increase due to more expensive wood and an acceleration in general cost inflation. The share of wood costs accounts for approximately EUR 30 million of the increase. Recently, however, cost inflation has slowed down, and no significant changes to production costs are expected in the near future.